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<TotalHTotalOO=Warning Text:Warning TextXTableStyleMedium9PivotStyleLight16`%xCriteria - Education - Ideas#OPJM and Alternate Proposals ;
; MISOSPPCAL ISOERCOTPJM ProposalReliabilityEconomicBased on Prod Cost Simulation%Cost Resp for Infrastructure UpgradesInitialPaid by Connecting GenPaid by Load Through RatesUltimateStudy CycleAnnual
Multi-yearPlanning Horizon
Study HorizonPrimary Study Years Financed by TOs / Constr PartiesSourcing StrategyAmount of RenewablesBalance of RenewablesWindSolarOtherLocation RequirementsIn versus Out of State!Balance of Other Needed ResourcesNuclearNatural GasLocation of RenewablesLocation of Other Resources"Criteria for Ordering TransmissionAt-Risk GenerationOther Policy InitiativesDemand ResponseModeled at PeakOther HoursEnergy EfficiencyModeled Over What HoursWhat Regs Drive At-Risk !Economic Determination of At-RiskWhat Magnitude of Gen At-RiskIn ISO versus From Neighbors+Process for Proposing Transmission ProjectsAnnual for near-term assessmentLong-term assessment looks at 10-year horizon for 100 kV and above and 20-year horizon for 300 kV and above; near-term assessment window is defined each year in scope documentTBD in scope document#15-month cycle initiated every yearScenario Planning Load ForecastsSourcing Strategies High NukeHigh GasHigh Off-Shore WindHigh Mid-West WindAccelerated Economic RecoverySlow Economic RecoveryStorage TechnologyStability AnalysisOperational Performance IssuesShort Circuit AnalysisTransfer CapabilityReduced CongestionReduced LossesNew TPL StandardsAging InfrastructureWindow of OpportunityQualifications to ProposeDetail of Proposals"Designation of Constructing EntityBasecase ViolationsScenarios with Least RegretsCriteria for Least RegretsDeadband for decision makingMerchant TransmissionMarket Revenue StreamsState CompactsCosts to Sponsoring StatesSafe Harbour ProvisionsCarbon regsOther environmental regsAbility to site projectsReduced RPS complianceAbility to financeCompetence to construct project PJM TodayAnnual for all assessmentsT5-year case, re-tool cases for earlier years, extrapolation analysis for later yearst15-years, 5-years primarily for lower voltages, 15-years primarily for higher voltages and longer lead-time projectsLinkage to proposing entitiesCirculation Flows(Model Some % Target Based on State Goals<Model Resources Required Based on State Goals in Legislation4Model Resources Required Based on State Energy PlansBasis For Source Location/Remove Specific Units or Derate Clases of UnitsAll NERC StandardsSubset of NERC StandardsOther Local StandardsBased on Prod Cost Savings$Based on Energy Cost Savings to LoadEnergy Delivery Measurement(Based on Aggregate MWhr Compared to Goal7Based on Individual Resource/Clusters by State or Other@[Note: Do operational issues impact scope of planning analyses?]Changes to Light-Load CriteriaOther Benefits MeasuredVoltage Stability AnalysisGenerator/Plant IssuesNetwork Reactive Issues)Criteria for re-evaluating past decisionsTreatment of Scenario Planning#Competence to own/maintain facilityBaseline & Scenarios-230kV &above violationsScenario Selection8-Baseline includes public policy mandates (conservative):-Group scenario drivers (left col.) based on common effect-5 scenarios & 1 baselineDemand Response (High&High Penetration (Includes Objectives)!Low Penetration (75% of Mandates)[ex) Low load Forecast Scenario (10% Lower) = Slow Economic Recovery and High DR PenetrationSolution Requirements*Cost of Solution:*Robustness (longevity & increaese in transfer capability)'*Least regrets- # of scenarios resolved8-Must best resolve violations in scenarios. Criteria are-*Economic benefits- total congestion relieved*Other?#-Must resolve baseline (brightline)Solution Selection Process:-Build upon and use PJM already proposed two-year process:;*PJM presents violations and issues for basline & scenarios*Same builder selection process#*Same Window for proposed solutionsOption A: PJM should exercise independent planner discretion for ordering transmission to resolve scenarios. Baseline is brightline. dOption B: Scenarios are planned for based on brightline criteria objectives. Baseline is brighline.Direct Energy Ideas #Criteria Applied in Policy AnalysesHandiling of Nuclear UnitsHandiling of Mothballed Units4Ability to Schedule Transmission Maintenance Outages-Mitigation of Unacceptable Operational EventsEDoes Treament of Policy Initiatives Anticipate Revised TPL Standards?=Any Consideration of Aging Infrastructure in Policy Analysis?-3Testing/Sensitivity ScenariosHistorical Stress CasesReactive Load ForecastsReactive Resource Capabilities#(see new TPL for additional items) %Expiration / Resubmittal of Proposals,Criteria for Selecting Transmission Projects)Selection of Best Solution from ProposalsSelection MetricsHow Far Out Does It Resolve?Elimitation of Other Upgrades&How Long Before Needing Next Solution?Siting FeasibilityNModeling assumptions made about neighboring systems when evaluating own system%Issues Posed by Intermitent ResourcesDesignation by RTODesignation by StatesDesignation Metrics,Cost Estimates (pay me now vs. pay me later)Construction StandardsAbility to Operate and Maintain^The study cycle to address bottom-up reliability and economic projects is repeated every year.The study cycle to recommend top-down projects to address public policy requirements as well as regional economic and reliability issues are performed on a two to three year cycleU3-year cycle for long-term assessments (18 months for 10 year, 18 months for 20 year)3Long-term assessments to identify public policy, reliabliy and economic needs and evaluate alternative solutions that meet those needs are performed on a 15 to 20 year planning horizon. Short-term assessments to recommend specific projects for construction are performed on a 5 to 10 year planning horizon.OIn short-term assessments, renewable generation is strictly tied to actual laws and regulations. At the current time, these laws and regulations are state laws and regulations. For long-term assessments, multiple futures will be considered, including futures with laws and regulations that do not yet exist (e.g., federal rps, etc.).YesSPP does not determine how the members meet their state goals. When providing their forecasts they would include such evaluations. SPP does include a federal mandated RES policyBalance of renewables is driven by actual laws and regulations, but wind is generally assumed when laws and regulation do not dictate other types.Laws and regulations are strictly followed when they specificy requirements for in-state vs. out-of-state. In general, 50% of a specific state's requirements is targeted to be within the state based on input and guidance from stakeholoders and state regulators.Out of State ConsideredAll requirements are modeled within the Midwest ISO footprint based on the significant availability of wind areas within the footprint.Sourced from SPPGIn long-term assessments, nuclear and natrual gas may be simulated in specific futures when appropriate. In short-term assessments, no new generation is modeled other than what is needed to meet resource adequacy requirements or public policy requirements, unless such new generation has an executed interconnection agreement.Renewables are located within specific zones developed in collaboration with stakeholders and state regualtors. These wind zones are disbursed throughout the footprint and were established based on NREL wind data./Demand response programs, as known, are modeledModeled within the load forecast provided by Transmission Owners or if a market participant makes a commitment to pursue. Futures may have some variations in demand response as data supporting projections is available.CWholesale Demand Response resources are mo<deled as a generators. AModeled within the load forecasts provided by Transmission OwnersEE products are not modeled at a wholesale level, but may be included in the numbers provided by members for the models based on their individual retail loads and forecasts.Unit retirements typically modeled in short-term assessments only when retirement is announced. Long-term assessments may model retirements as part of specific futures.KSPP is considering coal unit retirements for an ITP10 scenario under 200 MWNERC and Regional Standards.xEconomic benefits for MVP projects typically include production cost savings, capacity savings due to loss reductions during the system peak and capacity savings due to reduced planning reserve magins.For Market Efficiency Projects (MEPs), economic benefits are set by weighting production cost savings at 70% and cost to load savings at 30%. Stakeholders are currently reviewing this criterion and future modifications could be made to move away from LMP based benefits.dEnergy delivery is based on a combination of production cost simulations and power flow simulations.BYes if this means localized advancement towards an aggregate goal.JYes. Detailed transient and small signal stability analysis is conducted.Short-circuit analysis is conducted to determine if transmission project result in over-dutied circuit breakers. If so, circuit breaker upgrades can be added to the scope of the project.(Voltage stability analysis is conducted.}Operational issues can be considered in the planning analyses and may be used as a tie breaker between competing alternativesNoNot at this time.During long-term assessments such as the Regional Generation Outlet Study, the Midwest in collaboration with stakeholders used both a bottom-up and top-down process to proposed potential transmission projects. Stakeholders to review a more formal process in 2011 to go fwd. Current thinking is a window of time to accumulate proposals from stakeholders and from within, that have merit as candidates within a geographically diverse portfolio._For Multi Value Projects, the costs are allocated to Midwest ISO load on a postage stamp basis.REvery year for lower voltages, based on facilities with a primarily local functionS2-year cycle for higher voltages, based on facilities with a more regional function8-year case during first 12 months of 24-month cycle for higher voltages (regional projects), cases for further out years for market efficiency simulations, 5-year case each year for lower voltages, re-tool cases for earlier years, extrapolation analysis for later yearsNModel 100% of programs that are legislatively backed or enacted through policyFModel remaining needed resources as wind after solar and other (below)Model specific goals for solar/Model other sources where allowed - amounts TBDyMonitor satisfaction of in-state requirements through production cost simulations - adjust sourcing through sensitivities=Model 100% within PJM with sensitivities for external sourcestTarget 20% installed capacity reserves - add only renewables needed for goals - make up difference with gas and nukeZAdd two nukes in current 15-year case - Assumptions will be reviewed on an on-goings basisjAll reserve shortfall in shorter term cases and remainder after nukes in 15-year case will be natural gas Base case generally based on queue - solar in states based on goals - wind scenarios to vary from queue-based to higher ocean-based integrationWNukes based on most advanced queue positions - gas distributed on system based on queueBase case includes 100% of DR goals (in legislation of enacted through policy) - sensitivities will examine impact of lesser development or withdrawal of resources in future years - greater penetration will be examined based on development of market products<Traditional DR modeled as peak reducer per operational rulesONew products (PRD) modeled as TBD - need to work on how to model these productsTBD - Base case could model 100% of goals with sensitivity for lesser amounts or base case could track current performance with goals and sensitivities for higher amounts-TBD based on analysis of efficiency resourcesRun production cost simulations to test delivered MWHr - develop transmission upgrades and then test for complaince with all reliability standards and evaluate market efficiency benefits\Trigger violations at 100% of limit - don't back away from violation until reduced below 95%*What if DR exceeds PJM saturation values? #Criteria Applied in Policy AnalysesAdd: Operation Benefits Operation Benefits 0Remove Specific Units or Derate Classes of UnitsHandling of Nuclear UnitsHandling of Mothballed UnitsPrimary Power Comments.Not required. Projects can always be delayed.<If an entity keeps a proposal active, then that entity should continue to have ownership of that proposal; If a new process for submittals is implemented, there will need to be a one-time process to grant a reservation of rights to pre-existing projects that have been made public, either by the sponsor or by PJM. Multiple advantages-Agree there should be some type of deadband. If a project resolves or helps the grid in multiple categories, then this should be taken into account when choosing projects. There should be an item here for solutions whose benefits everyone understands, but cannot be measured with PJM's planning tools as they exist today.The Planning analysis should provide for Operational Issues. There should also be a formal presentation periodically to PC/TEAC of problems identified by Operations as part of the new planning process.Considering the relatively short lead time in which generation can retire, having a robust "at risk generation" analysis is important. It is then important to plan for at least some portion of this potential generation loss. RThe system must be planned to allow for emergency and planned maintenance outages.Yes, this should be considered.(Agree, this must be a planning criteria.lNew nuclear power should not be included in the base case. Should be considered in the scenario analysis. -At a minimum we should meet NERC Standards. ]Light load system problems are very real and must be accommodated in PJM's planning analysis.>y>s?
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